D2C Diagnostic

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Diagnosis — Apr 18, 2026

New customer acquisition fell off a cliff Apr 17–18.

Top-of-funnel traffic is stable, total spend is down 8% vs prior 14d, and blended CAC even improved slightly — but new customers crashed from a ~470/day run-rate to 294 on Apr 17 and 263 on Apr 18. Two affiliate/partner channels (GeistM, Impact) were shut off mid-period, accounting for a chunk of the miss. Site-side CVR data couldn't be pulled — flagged at bottom.

⚠️ Data pipeline alert

Omni's "Total Ad Spend" stopped syncing Apr 10 (reading $0 since). This may be why Daily Stand numbers aren't in. Northbeam spend is flowing — that's what this dashboard uses. Worth having engineering check the Omni ingest job.

Layer 1 · Top-line

14-day vs prior 14-day

Clicks Only attribution · D2C only · Northbeam + Omni

Spend (14d)
New Customers (14d)
Blended CAC
Visits
Daily new customers & revenue — last 14 days (Omni)
The cliff shows up in new customers (bars). Revenue (line) follows. Apr 18 is partial.
Daily orders & net subscribers — last 14 days
Orders holding relatively steady, net subscribers negative all period (churning more than acquiring).
Layer 2 · Channel mix

Where the dollars & customers are (and where they moved)

14d current vs prior 14d, by Northbeam platform

Spend by platform — current vs prior
GeistM & Impact went dark this period. YouTube and Canada Google crept up.
New customers by platform — current vs prior
Facebook roughly flat; GeistM, Impact, Axon, and Google all down.
Platform comparison table
Sorted by current spend.
PlatformSpendΔ vs prior New CustomersΔ CACΔ
Layer 3 · Site performance

Top landing pages — sessions & CVR

Intended: top 5 LPs + total site, 14-day trend

⚠ Blocked — data source unavailable GA4 landing page data requires either the Supermetrics connector (returning 403 Forbidden in this session) or running pull-data.js locally (which needs Desktop access).

Workarounds: (1) have Shane re-authenticate Supermetrics at claude.ai, or (2) run the Marketing Pulse data pull script manually, or (3) add a GA4 landing_pages table to Omni's daily_scorecard model.
Layer 4 · Meta deep dive

Where the Meta budget is landing

Campaign 14d · Ad set / creative 7d · Northbeam Clicks Only

Meta campaigns — spend (14d, top 10 by spend)
conv_all_ABO_sandbox is the concentration. conv_og_ASC_scaling is #2.
Meta campaigns — CAC (14d, top 10)
Lower is better. Red bars = CAC above $100 blended target.
Top 5 Meta ad sets — 7-day spend & CAC
Ranked by spend over last 7 days. CAC dot overlaid on bars.
Top 5 Meta creatives — 7-day spend & CAC
The FOUNDER_vs_MushroomCoffee_OG_July4 ad is absorbing most of the Meta spend.
Layer 5 · Google deep dive

Branded vs non-branded

14d current vs prior 14d · Google Ads US

Branded — Spend
Non-Branded — Spend
Branded — CAC
NC:
Non-Branded — CAC
NC:
Google — new customers, branded vs non-branded
Branded is doing most of the heavy lifting at a fraction of the CAC.
Layer 6 · Diagnosis & directives

What's happening & what to do

Root cause hypothesis

The Apr 17–18 NC cliff is not a paid-media creative/auction issue — Meta spend & efficiency are stable and visits are flat. Two things converged:

  1. Partner/affiliate shutoff: GeistM went from $30K → $0 spend; Impact went from $18K → $0. Those two alone drove ~170+ NC in the prior period that aren't showing up now.
  2. Likely site-side issue on Apr 17–18: Visits are flat but NC collapsed. Without LP/CVR data we can't prove it, but when traffic is steady and conversions tank, it's almost always a site event — pricing change, funnel break, subscription page issue, or email/promo blackout. Needs LP data
  3. Data pipeline: Omni ad spend sync broke Apr 10. Daily Stand almost certainly relies on that. This is masking visibility, not a real business issue.

Directives (ranked by impact)

  1. Check Shopify / GA4 right now for Apr 17–18. Specifically: any pricing test live? Any discount code removed? Subscription signup broken? Checkout error rate?
  2. Confirm GeistM and Impact status. If intentionally paused, re-plan April forecast by the ~400 NC/14d gap. If not intentional, flip them back on.
  3. Fix the Omni ad spend ingest job. It's been zero since Apr 10 — blocks Daily Stand and all downstream reporting.
  4. Meta: don't touch. Spend $441K, NC 2,819, CAC $156 — all within 1% of prior period. Keep conv_all_ABO_sandbox and conv_og_ASC_scaling running as-is.
  5. Google non-branded is leaking: $129 CAC on $33K spend vs $18 CAC branded on $11K. Review the non-branded keyword set — likely a bid spike or irrelevant traffic.
  6. Axon / AppLovin: spend flat but NC -32%. Review creative rotation — likely fatigued.
Generated · Northbeam Clicks Only · D2C only · Omni Daily Scorecard